If we assume Trump is playing a “Game of Chicken” with Iran, Game Theory suggests several key strategies for the Iranian side. These strategies aim to neutralize Trump’s tactics and force him to change course:1. Removing the Steering WheelThis is one of the most powerful yet riskiest strategies in the Game of Chicken.Imagine two cars speeding toward each other in a head-on collision course. The first driver suddenly pulls the steering wheel off and throws it out the window. By doing this, he signals to the second driver: “I can no longer change direction, even if I wanted to. The only way to avoid a fatal crash is for you to swerve.” This move strips the first driver of choice and places the entire burden and pressure on the second driver.Iran must convincingly demonstrate that, for fundamental and irreversible reasons, it cannot retreat. If Trump is truly convinced that retreating is equivalent to political suicide or total destruction for Iran and that Iran “has no brakes,” he will be forced to swerve and change his own path to avoid a collision (which would also be costly for him).Of course, this strategy is high-risk. If Trump views this signal as a bluff or remains equally determined until the end, the danger of an actual “crash” (military conflict) increases significantly.2. Credibility of Threat and Increasing the Cost of Non-Retreat for the AdversaryThis strategy is based on the principle that Trump will only “brake” if he believes a “collision” (military conflict or dire consequences) is inevitable and carries unacceptable costs for him.The second driver must show the first that not only will he not brake, but if the first driver fails to swerve, the cost of the collision for that first driver will be catastrophic.Demonstrating the capability to target U.S. interests and its allies in the region (bases, tankers, infrastructure) or advancing the nuclear program to the brink of “breakout” status significantly raises the cost of any U.S. military action.Trump is a businessman and prioritizes cost-benefit analysis. If he is convinced that the cost of continued pressure and the risk of military conflict (to the economy, elections, and international image) outweighs the potential benefits, the likelihood of his retreat increases. However, this strategy can also lead to escalation if the adversary chooses to increase their own capabilities instead of swerving.3. Providing a Face-Saving ExitAlongside the previous two strategies, this one is crucial. Even if Trump is convinced he must retreat, as a narcissistic and performative character, he needs an “honorable exit” (Face-Saving Exit). He must be able to justify his retreat to his public as a “victory” or a “great deal.”As the second driver speeds toward the first, he suddenly points out a side road or an exit to him and says: “You can exit here and declare this a victory for yourself instead of us crashing together.”At the peak of tensions, Iran could offer negotiations on less critical or peripheral issues that Trump can frame as “forcing Iran to the table,” while in reality, Iran’s core interests remain protected.The goal is to provide Trump an opportunity to back down from his hardline stance without losing face, thereby preventing a costly conflict. However, this method must be managed with extreme care and intelligence, as it could be misinterpreted as weakness or lead to unintended concessions.ConclusionDealing with a “Madman” player like Trump requires a combination of firmness and showing the impossibility of retreat (Removing the Steering Wheel), increasing the costs of aggression for him (Credibility of Threat), and finally, providing him with a face-saving way out.
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